Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at リージョナル In Hasuya
decks
3
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-8-2
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1379
· median 1417
· range 1241–1478
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1194
Q3 1409
1619
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.8% | +11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
